Archive for June, 2010

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Investment bankers views on the 2010 World Cup South Africa – England likely to win the World Cup

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

In a previous blog post we presented the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Division report on “The World Cup and Economics 2010″. Besides forecasting football scores and rankings, the report also presents some interesting correlations between the FIFA world rankings and two economic indicators: Gross National Product (GNP) per capita and Growth Environment Scores (GES).

In today’s post we  present a second report on World Cup 2010, currently released by J.P. Morgan Europe Equity Research Division.

The J.P. Morgan report “A Quantitative Guide to the 2010 World Cup” predicts that according to the forecasting algorithm used, England is likely to win the 2010 World Cup edition.

Although the initial World Cup Model Score shows Brazil as the strongest team taking part at the tournament, further correlations with the fixture table give England as the World Cup winners, followed on the 2nd place by Spain and on the 3rd place by Netherlands.

Source: J.P. Morgan 2010 – A quantitative report to winning the World Cup 2010

The forecasting algorithm used is based, according with the JP Morgan experts, on a successful Quant Model developed by J.P. Morgan over the years, which combines in its current adapted methodology: market prices, FIFA rankings, historical results and the J.P. Morgan team strength indicators. All these metrics, but also many others that were not mentioned above, are grouped in what is called the J.P. Morgan Cazenove Quant World Cup-Picking Model presented below.

Source: J.P. Morgan 2010 – A quantitative report to winning the World Cup 2010

Three of the most interesting and flavored metrics used in this model are:

• Consistency in Market Sentiment: Average (Probability of Winning) / (Max (Probability of Winning) – Min (Probability of Winning))

In terms of this metric, Brazil, England and Ivory Coast provide less risk in terms of the results surprise.

• J.P. Morgan Cazenove Success Ratio Indicator: it is calculated by computing the Win Ratio (Proportion of wins from the total number of games played) and scaling it by FIFA World Ranking

In terms of this metric, Netherlands, Spain, Chile and Brazil should be preferred, when picking a winner for the World Cup 2010.

As the model in its current structure takes in consideration only fixture results from the normal playing time interval, a new metric was decided to be introduced in order to cover the probability of a drawn match in the knockout phases.

• Penalty shootout metric: combines ability to score with goalkeeper ability using the formula shown below.

In terms of this metric, England, Spain, Netherlands and Germany are the favorites to win the World Cup.

Other noticeable facts that are outlined by the report are the World ranking vs probability of winning correlations which show that there are a few disagreements between FIFA World Ranking and the low probability of winning, in the cases of Portugal, Netherlands, Greece or high probability of winning, in the cases of England, Argentina and Ivory Coast.

Source: J.P. Morgan 2010 – A quantitative report to winning the World Cup 2010

Additionally to these findings, a final aspect that the J.P. Morgan report indicates is that the 3 favorite teams, as outlined by the World Cup Model Score:  Brazil, Spain and England represent a 52, 5% probability of winning the World Cup.

However, despite all these predictions, football fans should still keep up in mind at all times that the “ball is round” and that football is by its nature an unpredictable game.  No later than last night, Spain, the European Reigning Champions were defeated with 1-0 by their Swiss opponents, which started as outsiders, in a game from the first round of the group stage at the South Africa World Cup 2010.

References:

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Over 700 Key Performance Indicators (KPI) in practice reports on smartkpis.com

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

www.smartKPIs.com registered members can now learn about how companies use Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to monitor their performance by reviewing over 700 KPIs in practice reports documented and published in the online repository. The smartKPIs.com team focused in the last month on publishing reports from Financial Institutions and the Healthcare industry. KPIs in practice reports specific to the Manufacturing, Utilities and Hospitality & Tourism industries were also added to the database.

The KPIs in practice repository now contains reports from almost all industries in the smartKPIs.com business taxonomy, from over 60 countries, as diverse as Jordan, Japan, New Zealand, Romania, Singapore or Bermuda. The countries with the highest number of KPIs in practice reports are:

The industries with the highest number of documented performance measures are:

Example of a documented KPIs in practice report: Eli Lilly & Company

KPIs in Practice user experience on http://www.smartKPIs.com

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Investment bankers views on the 2010 World Cup South Africa – The World Cup and Economics 2010

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

The 2010 report on the The World Cup and Economics was recently released by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs. Besides forecasting football scores and rankings, the report presents an analysis regarding the correlation with other types of indicators within the World Cup context, such as:

  • Gross National Product (GNP) per Capita – measures the dollar value of the outputs (goods and services) produced within a country, divided by the number of its citizens (smartkpis.com, 2010)
  • Growth Environment Scores (GES) – represents a composite measure of growth conditions for 170 countries, aimed at summarizing the overall growth environment. Goldman Sachs introduces the GES in 2005, to rank countries according to their ability to achieve their growth potential. (Goldman Sachs, 2006)

After testing statistically both GNP per capita and GES with the current FIFA rankings, the conclusions were:

  • The correlation between GNP per capita and the current FIFA rankings is –0.17, lower than the correlation in 2006 (–0.41), this being an indication of a weak relationship between GNP per capita and a country’s FIFA ranking.

FIFA World Cup Rankings vs GNP per Capita (Goldman Sachs 2010)

  • Overall, the correlation between GES and FIFA rankings is also weak, only –0.07. For developed countries, the correlation is 0.29, while for developing countries it is –0.004. A reason for this low correlation level is Brazil and Argentina, for which, their GES cannot explain their high ranking.

GES and FIFA Ranking correlation score (Goldman Sachs, 2010)

Improvement in GES and FIFA Ranking (Goldman Sachs, 2010)

  • For the smaller emerging markets, the improvement in GES could conceivably be associated with better infrastructure and funding facilities for football. For example, Algeria has improved the most among developing countries, in both its GES and FIFA ranking. (Goldman Sachs 2010)

At its fourth edition, World Cup and Economics 2010 report presents also football statistics and odds for each country, offering even an intriguing exercise that calculates probabilities for the likely winner of the Cup.

References:

Goldman Sachs 2010, The World Cup and Economics 2010, available at: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook/the-world-cup-2010-doc.pdf (accessed 7 June 2010)

Goldman Sachs 2006, You Reap What You Sow: Our 2006 Growth Environment Scores, available at: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/BRICs-Chapter6.pdf (accessed 7 June 2010)

smartkpis.com (2010), Gross national product per capita, available at http://www.smartkpis.com/kpi-key-performance-indicator/gross-national-product-per-capita-2902.html (accessed 14 June 2010).

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South Africa 2010 FIFA World Cup social media fever – the most viewed ads on YouTube

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Without any doubt, social media is one of the hottest topics in marketing practice today. Both large and small businesses use it to leverage their marketing efforts. Benefits are obvious and they rely mainly on the “viral” characteristic that social media platforms enhance.

The latest example of a company who brilliantly explored the advantages of the social media marketing by associating one of its marketing campaigns with the second biggest sport competition in the world after Olympic Games, the World Cup South Africa 2010, is Nike.

Even though is not an official partner of the World Cup event, Nike turned the buzz created round the world soccer competition into its favor, by mastering a brilliant social marketing campaign.

As the latest Nielsen Company study reveals, Nike was mentioned in 30.2% of the English messages online, outrunning by far important World Cup South Africa 2010 partners such as Adidas, Coca-Cola, Sony or Visa (Nielsen Wire, 2010).

The study was conducted between May 7th to June 6th 2010 and looked at all World Cup related messages on blogs, message boards, groups, videos and image sites including You Tube, Facebook or Twitter – that mentioned at least one of the 10 official FIFA partners and sponsors with a global footprint or two of their top competitors (Nielsen Wire, 2010).

Source: Nielsen Wire, 2010

Additionally, if it is to make a top of the most viewed TV commercial ads and songs relating with the  World Cup South Africa 2010 event, as outlined by the metric # Views on YouTube, we find Nike as the clear leader, again:

1. Nike: # Views = 14,829,784 (accessed 13 June 2010)

2. Shakira & FIFA World Cup South Africa 2010 – Official Song: # Views = 6,595,756 (accessed 13 June 2010)

3. Adidas: # Views = 2,961,940 (accessed 13 June 2010)

4. Pepsi: # Views = 788,766 (accessed 13 June 2010)

5. Optus: # Views = 134,987 (accessed 13 June 2010)

References:

Additional resources:

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Working with initiatives in Performance Management – Check and Act vs. Study and Act

Saturday, June 12th, 2010

smartKPIs.com Performance Architect update 23/2010

In one of my previous updates I reviewed the history of the Deming cycle and its relevance for Performance Management. One of the most important benefits of managing performance in organizations is that it facilitates a structured process of improving the achieved results, which is the essence of performance.

Improvement doesn’t automatically derive from measurement. A robust process of analysis and decision making is required to facilitate suitable actions or initiatives. And to illustrate this process, Study as in the PDSA cycle is more meaningful than the Check as in the PDCA cycle.

The Performance Management case study presented the scenario of a non-profit organization interested in addressing childhood development issues. Some of the measures used were:

  • % Incidents of anemia
  • # Average scores on language and communication skills for toddlers
  • # Average scores for vocabulary tests

Using the traditional Plan – Do – Check – Act (PDCA) approach, the Check and Act phases would resume to gathering performance results data, reviewing it and taking actions to improve results. Generally the initiatives established as a result of this process would aim at doing more of the same thing. Improve efficiency or increase the volume of efforts.

However, a subtle change, that might appear superficial and technical to some, might mean more that it seems. Replacing Check with Study, shifts the emphasis from control and fixing the existing approach to learning and finding new ways to address the issue. For many years performance management has been associated with checking, inspecting, and controlling conformance. Performance Management for learning is a more balanced, mature approach to improvement.

In the case analyzed above, a review of the literature in the field and the latest research in the area of children health and development would reveal that the solution to the stagnation in achieving results might come from a surprising new direction. Under the title “Housing, Health, and Happiness” a new study published by the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy reveals that “replacing dirt floors with cement floors interrupts the transmission of parasitic infestations and should therefore reduce the incidence of both diarrhea and anemia. The reduction in anemia is expected to have positive effects on cognitive development” (Cattaneo et al, 2009).

The study, commissioned by the Mexican government, reveals the following results achieved during the experiment conducted in Mexico (UCBerkeleyNews, 2009):

  • 20.1% reduction in incidents of anemia
  • 30.2 percent higher score on the McArthur test (language and communication skills for toddlers ages 12 to 30 months)
  • 9% improvement in the scores obtained in the PPVT test (vocabulary tests for children ages 36 to 71 months)

When limiting themselves to checking the data and doing more of the same thing, organizations do not create the suitable conditions for leaning and integrating new ideas. Expanding the scope of inquiry from current approaches to researching new ones and investigating what happens in the field they operate in around the world, the improvement process benefits from using a more robust view on performance management, that emphasize the role of the study component.

In the case described above, reviewing recent research in the issue of health and early childhood development reveals a potential new approach that might just be the solution sought after. Setting up a new initiative that aims at replacing dirt floors with cement promises to a positive impact on the health and cognitive development of young children in the targeted community.

Study puts initiatives management in a new light.

Stay smart! Enjoy smartKPIs.com!

Aurel Brudan

Performance Architect,
www.smartKPIs.com


References

Cattaneo, Matias D., Sebastian Galiani, Paul J. Gertler, Sebastian Martinez, and Rocio Titiunik. 2009. “Housing, Health, and Happiness” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 1(1): 75–105. Note: a working paper version of the article is available at: http://www.stanford.edu/group/siepr/cgi-bin/siepr/?q=system/files/shared/pubs/papers/pdf/SCID367.pdf

UCBerkeleyNews, 2009, “Inexpensive flooring change improves child health in urban slums” available at: http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2009/03/10_floors.shtml, accessed 05 June 2010.

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“The truth about Performance Management” … as revealed by a SAS survey report

Friday, June 11th, 2010

According with a 2007 SAS report on performance management issues, alignment is the most important benefit of performance management efforts. The report was based on survey data gathered online from 1143 respondents from cross-industry organizations across the globe (SAS, 2007). The report presents a detailed picture over the use of performance management tools, frameworks, systems and practices in the worldwide organizations.

Among the most important findings that were outlined from the survey (SAS, 2007) are:

• Performance Management practices have spread over most of the organizational functional areas. According the SAS survey findings, the operations function is most likely to drive the effort followed closely by the finance and human resources departments.

• Even though most of the performance management practices are multi-departmental, only a third of them are aligned across all departments.

• Most companies are looking for performance management initiatives that could boost their competitiveness.

• Cultural resistance, the human factor, is the primary factor to achieving performance management success.

• Organizations have problems in integrating multiple systems employed to solve problems across their structure.

• Companies who are following a sequential approach to integrating performance management practices across all organizational levels are the most likely to succeed.

• Technology plays an important role in the performance management success.

• The more a company is mature in the use of information, the more successful will be in nurturing successful performance management practices.

Additionally, a table with the most significant performance management findings from the survey can be visualized below:

Source: The truth about Performance Management, A report of survey findings, SAS 2007

Although the SAS report presents a comprehensive picture of the use of performance management practices across organizations, other surveys available for the larger public might present different results. Each study uses different research tools and attributes different rigor in data collection and interpretation. A compendium of such statistics on performance management practices can be found in the smartKPIs.com Performance Architect update 20/2020.

References:

Additional resources:

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Over 3300 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) examples on www.smartKPIs.com

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

www.smartKPIs.com registered users can now select their Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) from over 3300 Performance Measures documented and published in the online repository. The team focused in the last month on publishing examples from the Publishing, Hospitality & Tourism and Telecommunication / Call Center industries among others.

The functional areas with the highest number of KPI examples are:

The industries with the highest number of documented performance measures are:

Example of a documented performance measure: % Readership

User experience on http://www.smartKPIs.com

  • Learn: To learn more about performance management and Key Performance Management visit the Resources section.
  • Explore: To explore the library of KPI examples by navigating the functional area and industry directory, visit the Browse KPIs section.
  • Customize: To build your customized KPI library by saving favorite examples for later use, visit the My KPIs section.
  • Contribute: To propose a new example of KPI, visit the Submit KPIs section.
  • Collaborate: To collaborate with other users and to discuss KPI examples, add comments on each KPI description page.

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The interplay between Business Intelligence and Performance Management in today’s organizations

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

Many business users still rely today on spreadsheets, presentations and e-mail as their tools for information and analysis, despite major investments in technology and their willingness to manage or improve organizational performance.

A new study by Ventana Research, “Business Intelligence and Performance Management for the 21st Century“, reveals that these desktop productivity tools obstruct efficiency and effectiveness when used in enterprise processes.

The Findings

Ventana Research undertook this benchmark research to assess the current state of maturity, trends and best practices. The goal was to determine how organizations approach Business Intelligence (BI) and performance management and prioritize their key components by identifying what elements they desire in a comprehensive approach.

The research found strong interest in a growing demand for BI and performance management. Departmentally, the most growth in adoption of BI tools to support performance management has been in Operations (51%), Finance (50%) and Customer Management (49%).

Source: UBM TechWeb Reader Services, 2010

However, the research paints a picture of a market in an early stage of development. It shows that most organizations face considerable obstacles. They have only basic BI capabilities such as:

  • querying sources for specific data (74%),
  • generating reports from data (74%)
  • accessing data from a spreadsheet for further analysis (70%).

Moreover, the capabilities they currently are working to deploy are only somewhat more sophisticated:

  • communicating data in the right format (27%),
  • searching for data (26%),
  • presenting data effectively (25%)
  • creating measures and metrics (24%).

Organizations are aware that more advanced capabilities exist; the ones our participants said most often that they hope to establish are being able to access data via a mobile device (27%), to conduct what-if analysis (25%) and to collaborate on data and metrics (23%).

The research shows that lack of resources (60%) and lack of a budget (43%) are the two most common barriers to improving BI and performance management. A significant percentage of the participants said that in the next year or two they will choose hosted software managed off-site, or rented software as a service (SaaS), as the means of deploying such software.

These methods can be more economical than the traditional on-premises deployment and require fewer in-house resources such as hardware and IT staff.

What To Do Next

According with the research, organizations can follow a series of steps as presented below:

1. Assess your organization’s maturity in BI and performance management.

2. Consider the effectiveness of your current tools and applications.

3. Reduce the number of BI tools and the use of spreadsheets.

4. Compare the BI capabilities you have with those you want.

5. Determine whether products currently in use can handle performance management well.

6. Identify the types of data you need to access and analyze.

7. Consider adopting or expanding metrics for performance management.

8. Address organizational barriers to improving BI and performance management.

9. Look into alternative means of software deployment

10. Examine software that can be deployed across roles in the enterprise.

References:

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Readership – Key Performance Metric for Newspaper Advertising

Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

A recent analysis of daily printed newspaper readership and circulation data for 25 leading U.S. newspapers conducted by Scarborough Research and Newspaper National Network LP (NNN) indicates that Readers-Per-Copy (RPC) rates increased over the past three years by an average of 7.5 percent.

Newspaper Reader-Per-Copy Trend (Source: Newspaper National Network LP & Scarborough Research, 2010)

Readership is considered a key metric for media planning and buying. “This analysis shows that readership is key for buying newspaper advertising, not only because it correlates with circulation, but because readership provides the qualitative dimension of the newspaper audience — demographics, shopping and purchasing behavior, and lifestyles – that buyers need to make informed decisions” (Newspaper National Network LP & Scarborough Research, 2010).

Circulation and Readership Trends (Source: Newspaper National Network LP & Scarborough Research, 2010)

The analysis concludes that:

  • Readership and circulation are two metrics highly correlated, that have been moving in the same direction over time. In today’s media environment, these metrics are strongly linked to planning and buying newspaper advertising.
  • Readership provides advertisers with very important qualitative information. For example, the analysis shows that newspapers attract upscale, educated consumers, therefore being able to compete for a share of a brand’s media budget.
  • The publishers’ efforts to jettison unprofitable or unproductive circulation have been successful. An example is the decrease in distribution outside the paper’s core market.

The Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) used within this analysis are:

For further examples of performance indicators, explore the Publishing KPIs examples and the section of smartkpis.com (smartKPIs.com, 2010).

References:

Newspaper National Network LP & Scarborough Research 2010, Telling the Whole Story: Analysis Supports Readership as Key Metric for Planning and Buying Newspaper Advertising, available at  http://www.scarborough.com/press_releases/Scarborough%20NNN%20Study%20Design%20Draft%20FINALa.pdf (accessed 7 June 2010).

smartKPIs.com (2010), Publishing KPI examples, available at http://www.smartkpis.com/kpi/industries/publishing/ (accessed 7 June 2010).

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An overview of Business, Corporate and Enterprise Performance Management

Monday, June 7th, 2010

Simply stated, Business Performance Management (BPM) can be described as a series of business processes, systems and applications designed to optimize both the development and the execution of business plans.

Definition of BPM

In an effort to provide clarity to the industry, a BPM standards group was established in 2003. Their definition for BPM was “a set of integrated, closed-loop management and analytic processes, supported by technologies, that address financial and operational activities.” (Frolick et al., 2006)

Synonyms for “Business Performance Management” include “Corporate Performance Management” and “Enterprise Performance Management”.

Some consider Corporate Performance Management (CPM) is the area of business intelligence (BI) involved with monitoring and managing an organization’s performance, according to key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue, return on investment (ROI), overhead, and operational costs. (SearchDataManagement.com, 2010)

If we regard Business Performance Management (BPM) and Corporate Performance Management (CPM) as near synonyms: BPM would serve as the more generalised and used  term.

However, because the use of the acronym “BPM” can cause confusion with “Business Process Management”, using terms such as “Corporate Performance Management” or “Enterprise Performance Management” can avoid that confusion.

The history of BPM

Similar to other past trends in information systems, BPM has evolved over several decades. An account of its history is illustrated in the table below:

Source: Frolick et al., 2006

Examples of BPM frameworks

Core BPM processes include financial and operational planning, consolidation and reporting, business modeling, analysis, and monitoring of key performance indicators linked to strategy ( BPM Magazine, 2010).

According to other sources, the BPM framework is composed of four core processes. These four key steps are the foundation for designing, implementing, and managing BPM (Frolick et al., 2006):

1. Strategize

2. Plan

3. Monitor and analyze

4. Take corrective action

The first two steps represent the formulation of business strategy, and the last two steps define how to modify and execute strategy. These four core processes form a closed loop that captures business strategy, which is then translated into strategically aligned business operations. (Image Source: Frolick et al., 2006)

Another example of a BPM or CPM  Framework is the one developed by PriceWaterHouseCoopers (2008). It is structured on 6 steps: strategy, plan, measure, insight, execute and reward. It also identifies 5 key enablers that help organizations driving strategy into sustainable performance: Culture, Governance, Data Management, Technology and Process.

Source: PricewaterwouseCoopers, 2008

Various methodologies for implementing BPM exist. They provide companies a top-down framework by which to align planning and execution, strategy and tactics with business-unit and enterprise objectives. Various management concepts are intertwined in practice: Six Sigma, Balanced Scorecard, Activity-Based Costing (ABC), Total Quality Management, Economic Value-Add, Integrated Strategic Measurement and Theory of Constraints.

The Balanced Scorecard is the most widely adopted performance management methodology, especially as a system.

Methodologies on their own cannot deliver a full solution to an enterprise’s BPM needs. Many pure-methodology implementations fail to deliver the anticipated benefits due to lack of integration with fundamental BPM processes.

References

  • PricewaterhouseCoopers, Corporate Perfrormance Management 2008, available at http://www.pwc.com/, accessed 28 May 2010
  • Business Performance Management Magazine, available at  http://bpmmag.net/, accessed 28 May 2010

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Performance Management case study: Plan – Do – Check – Act (PDCA) in a non-profit organization

Saturday, June 5th, 2010

smartKPIs.com Performance Architect update 22/2010

Improving children’s quality of life in developing countries is today a priority of thousands of non-for-profit organizations. It is a difficult journey, influenced by many macro and microeconomic, political, social, cultural and religious factors. Many such efforts are structured in programs and projects. Monitoring not only their implementation, but also their impact is a requirement not only for tracking if they make a difference, but also for attracting new funding and other resources for future programs. Overall, many non-profit programs employ robust performance management systems to support the achievement of their purpose. Designing and using such systems is not as straightforward as it may seem.

Organisation

A non-profit organization.

Setting

The organization operates in both urban and rural regions, implementing programs and projects targeting specific health and early childhood development issues.

Mandate

Improve the health and education of children in at risk communities in developing countries.

Instruments

A performance management system is in place, linking objectives, performance indicators and initiatives.

Performance indicators

To monitor the achievement of this objective a set of performance measures can be established, targeting some of the specific issues to be addressed. For example:

% Incidents of anemia

# Average scores on language and communication skills for toddlers

# Average scores for vocabulary tests

Scenario

The organization is following the standard Deming cycle applied in a performance management context: Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA). Each year it formulates a plan of activities, specifying objectives, performance indicators and projects to be implemented. It monitors results every six months, when following an analysis of these results, review meetings take place. They generally result in a recalibration of initiatives and sometimes new ones are established. Several programs and projects are running at any time, aimed at raising awareness in the community of health and educational issues. Additional projects targeted specific issues such as improving the economic situation of the families in the community, better equipping the kindergarten / primary school and training the educators.

Some success was reflected by the reduction of the incidents of anemia and improvement in the scores.

However, after a while, the performance reports started to reflect a stabilization of results and no further improvements were achieved.

Questions

  • What changes to the existing portfolio of projects and programs should the organization make to improve results?
  • How should the organization alter the Performance Management System in use to facilitate better results?
  • What approach to stakeholder management should the organization take to facilitate sustainable changes in the community?

Stay smart! Enjoy smartKPIs.com!

Aurel Brudan

Performance Architect,
www.smartKPIs.com


Discuss the case in the smartKPIs.com Forum

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